Flood frequency hydrology: 3. A Bayesian analysis
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
A regional Bayesian POT model for flood frequency analysis
Flood Frequency Analysis is usually based on the fitting of an extreme value distribution to the series of local streamflow. However, when the local data series is short, frequency analysis results become unreliable. Regional frequency analysis is a convenient way to reduce the estimation uncertainty. In this work, we propose a regional Bayesian model for short record length sites. This model i...
متن کاملSocio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions
Over history, humankind has tended to settle near streams because of the role of rivers as transportation corridors and the fertility of riparian areas. However, human settlements in floodplains have been threatened by the risk of flooding. Possible responses have been to resettle away and/or modify the river system by building flood control structures. This has led to a complex web of interact...
متن کاملFlood frequency analysis: assumptions and alternatives
Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is a form of risk analysis, yet a risk analysis of the activity of FFA itself is rarely undertaken. The recent literature of FFA has been characterized by: (1) a proliferation of mathematical models, lacking theoretical hydrologic justification, but used to extrapolate the return periods of floods beyond the gauged record; (2) official mandating of particular mode...
متن کاملClimate informed flood frequency analysis and prediction in Montana using hierarchical Bayesian modeling
[1] It is widely acknowledged that climate variability modifies the frequency spectrum of extreme hydrologic events. Traditional hydrological frequency analysis methods do not account for year to year shifts in flood risk distributions that arise due to changes in exogenous factors that affect the causal structure of flood risk. We use Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis to evaluate several factors ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Water Resources Research
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0043-1397
DOI: 10.1029/2011wr010782